- Timezone: America/New_York
- Date: Jun 24 2021
- Time: 6:30 am - 8:30 am
- Jun 24 2021
- 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm
Net Zero Emission Pathways Reduce the Physical and Economic Risks of Change
Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets entail varying degrees of temperature overshoot. The intertemporal consequences of overshoot have been typically evaluated from the point of view of mitigation.
We show that limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets such as 1.5C. Overshooting leads to lower short-term mitigation costs. However, our analysis allows us to fully appreciate the significant economic gains arising after 2050 from avoided impacts and reduced mitigation efforts resulting from early investments. The analysis highlights the need to integrate climate benefits in mitigation pathways and to account for fat-tailed distributions.