General Objectives

Objective 1: Develop and carry out coordinated climate projections and scenarios that enhance cross-community research and deliver responsive support to climate assessments and policy.
Align process-resolving modelling of Earth system, impacts, and emissions pathways alongside ML/AI emulators, across international modelling efforts, e.g. CMIP, CORDEX, ISIMIP, IAMC and initiatives e.g. GCP, IGCC. Advance the European federated data infrastructure for greater data interoperability, documentation and integration between communities. A coordinated and timely contribution to AR7.

Objective 2: Evaluate the plausibility, risks and impacts of future climate pathways, including the potential reversibility of temperature overshoot.
Understanding the consequences of exceeding the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, stabilisation and return, including feasibility. Includes (un)avoidable and (ir)reversible changes in mean climate, variability, and extremes, feedbacks and abrupt change, the carbon cycle, sea level, species loss, human and natural system impacts.

Objective 3: Explore future climate pathways using the climate data multiverse and demonstrate its value in delivering actionable science for policy and decision-making.
Analysis and guidance on leveraging the breadth of modelling efforts to develop scientific insights to support climate policy, connecting emission, climate, and impacts, exploring knowledge and the uncertainty cascade. Co-design case studies and use storylines to address policy questions.

Objective 4: Establish a multidisciplinary mode of working that reduces fragmentation, fosters inclusiveness, and builds a coherent and collaborative European climate science community.
A paradigm shift and design of an integrative climate pathways system through collaborative multidisciplinary, cross-community efforts and culture better connected to policy and society. Inspire next generation scientists working across disciplines.

Expected Results

EIEE-SEME contributes to FUTURA with the WITCH model, generating the mitigation scenarios that feed the project. Our work focuses on overshoot pathways: how the world can temporarily exceed climate targets and then return to them. We explore the main drivers of overshoot, such as the speed of mitigation, the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), and methane and air-pollution controls, and we assess how feasible the resulting pathways are. We also work on bringing climate impacts and damages back into the scenarios, so that mitigation choices reflect the consequences of climate change. A key part of our role is the synthesis on overshoot and on the efficacy, feasibility and impacts of large-scale CDR, linking the policy side of climate targets to the Earth system and impacts side of the project.