From net-zero to zero-fossil in transforming the EU energy system

This webinar provides an overview of the European efforts on the phase out of fossil fuels. 

The EU climate neutrality goal requires a strong reduction in fossil fuel use. However, whether a complete phase-out is feasible and desirable remains unclear. Using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the additional effort needed to achieve a nearly complete EU-wide phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 compared to a standard net-zero scenario with remaining fossil fuels. We show that in the standard net-zero scenario fossil fuel consumption already decreases by 90% from 2020 to 2050. It is compensated by renewable power, the switch to electric technologies like heat pumps and electric vehicles, as well as some hydrogen and biofuels. However, some oil and natural gas persists in hard-to-abate sectors such as the chemical industry, aviation and shipping. Phasing them out requires the large-scale deployment of costly carbon-neutral e-fuels, which substantially increases marginal abatement costs from 460 EUR to 630 EUR tCO₂^-1 (500-1000 EUR tCO₂^-1). Our works shows the additional transformation challenges if the EU aims to strengthen its climate policy commitment with a full fossil phase-out target.

Speaker:

• Felix Schreyer (felix.schreyer@pik-potsdam.de): Felix Schreyer is a post-doctoral researcher in the Energy Transition Lab at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. His research takes a cross-sectoral view on energy transition dynamics for reaching ambitious climate targets based on integrated assessment modeling. In particular, he has published on German and European net-zero pathways and their implications for the role of hydrogen. 

Moderator:

• Léa Hayez (lea.hayez@pik-potsdam.de): Léa Hayez works with the Integrated Assessment Modelling group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research since 2024. She is a scientific project coordinator and researcher, focusing on international climate policy, and the risks of climate change for the global economy and finance sector. Léa holds a MSc. in Energy System Engineering and previously worked on climate resilience of power systems, using participatory approaches to integrate climate risks in energy system planning.

Discussant:

• Jessica Jewell (jewell@chalmers.se)