Integrating Demand-side Solutions for Accelerated Decarbonization of Power Supply System: Insights from Bangladesh and Thailand

Speaker: Firuz Ahamed Nahid, Post Doctoral Researcher, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand

Moderator: Jubair Sieed, Researcher, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Japan

Abstract:

Electricity generation sector in Bangladesh and Thailand remain predominantly fossil fuel powered (62.6% and 67%, respectively). Each country has set long-term climate goals (Thailand: carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero by 2065; Bangladesh: 41% renewables by 2041). This study constructs nationally tailored (pledged and higher ambition action) least-cost pathways for 2030 to 2050 using PyPSA-BD/TH-IDS (Integrated Demand and Supply) developed for the purpose, coupling high-resolution spatial (30×30 km) resource availability with hourly system operation and validation against 2019 officially published data. Scenarios include (eight for Bangladesh and ten for Thailand) end-use energy efficiency (EE, up to 50%), demand-side flexibility (DSF, up to 10% load shifting) and supply-side expansion of renewable shares that span low (≤40%), moderate (40–70%), and high (>70%) scales of penetration. Results show that demand side solution integrated planning reduces supply system size by avoiding overbuild of renewable expansion, improves affordability, and lowers resource mobilization needs including financial resources and land footprint while reducing near-term CO₂ emissions relative to supply-only pathways. By 2050, Bangladesh’s 100% clean power case with integrated end-use efficiency and demand- side flexibility requires 172.55 GW, ~58% less than the capacity requirement in the supply-only pathway, with an affordable generation cost of 0.049 €/kWh, while the current cost is ~0.80 €/kWh. The land footprint is about 1,960 km² (~1.32% of total land area of the country). In supply-only pathways they are 3,695 km² (~2.49% of total land area of the country). The financial resource mobilization need is €144 billion over a period of 25 years(~1.78 times lower) and employment potential is ~1.92 times higher (7.34 million) compared to the supply-side only pathway. Similarly, for Thailand, 100% clean electricity by 2050 requires 297.11 GW of total installed capacity, which is ~56% of the supply-only pathway, with 0.065 €/kWh generation cost indicates affordability in integrated demand and supply-side pathway, while the current generation cost is ~0.089 €/kWh . The integrated end-use EE and DSF combined with supply- side expansion reduces land footprint by ~44% (3153 km 2 which is 0.61% of total land area) compared with the supply-side only pathway, while the resource mobilization need is ~48% lower (€120.20 billion) and job creation potential is ~1.56 times higher (9.43 million). Finally, the open-source, nationally grounded framework of the model supports local capacity development through open collaboration and provides actionable guidance for policy making indeveloping economies and also to understand nuances of transition challenges.

Register in advance: https://cmcc-it.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_kLmDT208Th6WX13HgiHi7A