Speaker: Emilien Ravigné, CMCC Foundation

Moderator: Cristina Cattaneo, CMCC Foundation

The Net Zero transition is often framed as a cost to the economy, but its implications for productivity are more subtle. This talk brings together three ongoing projects that study how clean energy technologies affect measured and aggregate productivity. First, I show that the energy transition is also a measurement story. When clean technologies get cheaper, and much of the innovation is embodied in imported equipment, statistical choices determine the macroeconomic narrative around Net Zero. Second, I present a framework that maps sectoral price and quantity paths from transition scenarios into aggregate total factor productivity. Applied to UK Climate Change Committee scenarios, the aggregate productivity effect of Net Zero is small, because sectoral costs and savings largely offset one another. Third, I examine low- and middle-income countries, where falling renewable costs, electrification, and reduced conversion losses can generate much larger productivity gains. In energy-intensive economies with strong renewable resources, clean energy can become a source of comparative advantage and long-run growth. Overall, the transition does not mechanically imply a productivity penalty: its effects depend on measurement, production-network structure, and where clean energy cost declines occur.

17 September 2026, 12:00 CEST
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