Burden of climate change on malaria mortality

Burden of climate change on malaria mortality

Dasgupta S., (2018), Burden of climate change on malaria mortality, International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health, Volume 221, Issue 5, June 2018, Pages 782-791, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2018.04.003, webpage

Abstract

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively – the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0–4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.

 

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