Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World
Roe S., Streck C., Obersteiner M., Frank S., Griscom B., Drouet L., Fricko O., Gusti M., Harris N., Hasegawa T., Hausfather Z., Havlík P., House J., Nabuurs G-J., Popp A., Sánchez M.J.S., Sanderman J., Smith P., Stehfest E., Lawrence D., (2019), Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World, Nature Climate Change, Volume 9, pages 817–828, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0591-9, webpage
The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here we combine a review of modelled pathways and literature on mitigation strategies, and develop a land-sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector and deploying measures in agriculture, forestry, wetlands and bioenergy could feasibly and sustainably contribute about 30%, or 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) per year, of the global mitigation needed in 2050 to deliver on the 1.5 °C target, but it will require substantially more effort than the 2 °C target. Risks and barriers must be addressed and incentives will be necessary to scale up mitigation while maximizing sustainable development, food security and environmental co-benefits.