The historical evidence and the economic literature confirm that international trade can play an important role in smoothing negative economic shocks experienced by a country. There is, however, a growing body of evidence that trade can also act as a transmission channel for localized crises, especially those affecting major importers or exporters of key commodities. This session will present analysis of these dynamics in the context of climate change, assessing the potential, trade related, cascading macroeconomic and sectoral effects on the EU, triggered by impacts on agricultural commodities, energy demand, and supply chain stresses associated with the interruption of important maritime trade nodes. The effects of  these dynamics on food markets will also be discussed, through case studies of  international food systems and Brazilian soy.

SPEAKERS

Francesco Bosello, EIEE

Emilie Stokeld, Research Assistant, SEI York

Joe Simpson, Research Assistant, SEI York

Richard King, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Programme,  Chatham House

Rania Zaatour, Postdoctoral Researcher, Potsdam Institute for Climate  Impact Research (PIK)

COP27 Cascading Climate Risks Virtual Pavilion  

In 2022, the direct impacts of climate change – such as droughts, floods, and  wildfires – have become impossible to ignore.
However, these impacts can also have knock-on effects which are less immediately  visible: effects that cross borders and continents, escalating through security  relations, international trade, financial markets, international aid operations or  migration.
Such complex chains are set to have increasingly significant impacts on our  societies as the world experiences the effects of a changing climate.
Gaining an understanding of them, and the ways in which they can be mitigated and adapted to, is crucial as we move into an uncertain future.
The COP27 Cascading Climate Risks Virtual Pavilion, hosted by Chatham House’s  Environment and Society Programme offers the opportunity to explore these emerging dynamics with experts in the field.
Taking place over two days during the COP27 climate conference, the pavilion  convenes researchers and stakeholders from CASCADES, an interdisciplinary research project devoted to the analysis of the cross-border impacts of climate change.
Supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, CASCADES applies state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative research and stakeholder engagement approaches to identify critical areas of concern for  European societies and EU policy and explore different solutions.
Please note that, with the exception of the Adaptation Without Borders event which is taking place in a hybrid format, all events are online.

Access to the pavilion is entirely online, and no UNFCCC accreditation is required.

HOW TO PARTICIPATE

Online via Chatham House COP27 Cascading Climate Risks Virtual Pavilion
Registration: https://chathamhouse.cplus.live/auth/sign-up/cop27-cascading-climate-risks-virtual-pavilion