Climate shift uncertainty and economic damages

Thursday, December 4th at 12:00 pm an hybrid EIEE Seminar-Webinar will be held by Gernot Wagner.

Gernot will present his work on: “Climate shift uncertainty and economic damages” (Fillon, Romain, Manuel Linsenmeier and Gernot Wagner. “Climate shift uncertainty and economic damages.” Mimeo (4 November 2025)).

Abstract: Focusing on global annual averages of climatic variables, as in the standard damage function approach, can bias estimates of the economic impacts of climate change. Here we empirically estimate global and regional dose-response functions of GDP growth rates to daily mean temperature levels and combine them with regional climate projections. We disentangle how much of the missing impacts are due to differences in warming versus heterogeneous damage patterns over space and time. Global damages in 2050 are around 20% higher, when accounting for the shift in the entire distribution of daily mean temperatures at the regional scale. Differences in the shape of daily temperature distributions between climate models transform standard risk rankings based on temperature anomaly, and increase uncertainty across climate models. JEL: O44, Q54, Q56

Registration required: https://cmcc-it.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_rTajb8vTSjWybKjKwjn3vQ#/registration