Climate Transition

Climate Transition

Achieving climate neutrality requires a rapid and profound transformation of our societies. Strong analytical capacity can be harnessed to design transition pathways which are feasible and equitable.

Our work

We examine pathways of transition of the economic, environmental and technological systems. We develop and use complex models which integrate sectors and systems and allow delineating the key strategies compatible with climate stabilization. We assess climate legislation based on its climate effectiveness, economic efficiency and equity. Scenarios of emission reductions are generated to be consistent with a broader sustainability agenda and to examine low carbon technologies such as renewables, hydrogen, storage, demand-side management etc. We carry out empirical work on the efficacy of climate policies around the world.




Removing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions to support ambitious climate transitions


Europe's Moment: Designing Effective Policies in Energy Storage Technology for Renewables


Developing circular pathways for a EU low-carbon transition




Circular Economy Modelling for Climate Change Mitigation


Global Excellence in Modeling Climate and Energy Policies


Climate and cultural based design and market valuable technology solutions for Plus Energy Houses


Localised decarbonisation pathways for citizens, local administrations and businesses to inform for mitigation and adaptation action


European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum


Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions


Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making


Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach


Global Excellence in Modelling of Climate and Energy


Integrated Assessment of Renewable Hydrocarbons


Modelling of national greenhouse-gas emission mitigation policies and the relationship with global low emission pathways


CO-designing the Assessment of Climate CHange costs


Linking Climate and Development Policies – Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing

Yalew, A.W.

Environmental and economic accounting for biomass energy in Ethiopia

Energy, Sustainability and Society , 12, Article number: 30 - 2022

Armaroli N., Cazzola P., Carraro C., Cherchi E., Procopio M., Tanelli M., Tavoni M., Tilche A., Torsello M.

How to reduce emissions and energy use for Italy’s transport sector

Nature , - 2022

Pianta, S. & Brutschin, E.

Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts

Politics and Governance , Vol 10, No 3 (2022): Exploring Climate Policy Ambition - 2022

Ferrari L., Carlino A., Gazzotti P., Tavoni M., Castelletti A.

From optimal to robust climate strategies: expanding integrated assessment model ensembles to manage economic, social, and environmental objectives

Environmental Research Letters , Volume 17, Number 8 - 2022

Bosetti V., Dennig F., Liu N., Tavoni M., Weber E.

Forward‑Looking Belief Elicitation Enhances Intergenerational Beneficence

Environmental and Resource Economics , 81, pages743–761 (2022) - 2022

Detlef P. van Vuuren, et al. [Bosetti V.]

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

One Earth , - 2022

Grubb, M., C. Okereke, J. Arima, V. Bosetti, Y. Chen, J. Edmonds, S. Gupta, A. Köberle, S. Kverndokk, A. Malik, L. Sulistiawati

Introduction and Framing. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , - 2022

Drouet L., Bosetti V., Tavoni M.

Net economic benefits of well-below 2°C scenarios and associated uncertainties

Oxford Open Climate Change , Volume 2, Issue 1, 2022, kgac003 - 2022

van Vuuren D.P., Zimm C., Busch S., Kriegler E., Leininger J., Messner D., Nakicenovic N., Rockstrom J., Riahi K., Sperling F., Bosetti V., Cornell S., Gaffney O., Lucas P.L., Popp A., Ruhe C., von Schiller A., Schmidt J.O., Soergel B.

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

One Earth , Volume 5, Issue 2, P142-156, February 18, 2022 - 2022

Riahi K., et al. [Bosetti V., Drouet L., Tavoni M.]

Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Nature Climate Change , - 2021

Aldy J.E., Felgenhauer T., Pizer W.A., Tavoni M., Belaia M., Borsuk M.E., Ghosh A., Heutel G., Heyen D., Horton J., Keith D., Merk C., Moreno-Cruz J., Reynolds J.L., Ricke K., Rickels W., Shayegh S., Smith W., Tilmes S., Wagner G., Wiener J.B.

Social science research to inform solar geoengineering

Science , Vol 374, Issue 6569, pp. 815-818 - 2021

Aleluia Reis L., Drouet L., Tavoni M.

Internalizing air pollution health-economic impacts into climate policy – a global modelling study

The Lancet Planetary Health , Volume 6, Issue 1, E40-E48 - 2022

Nikas A., Elia A., Boitier B., Koasidis K., Doukas H., Cassetti G., Anger-Kraavi A., Bui, H. Campagnolo L., De Miglio R., Delpiazzo E., Fougeyrollas, A., Gambhir, A., Gargiulo M., S. Giarola, Grant N., Hawkes A., Herbst A., Köberle A.C., Kolpakov A., Le Mouël P., McWilliams B., Mittal S., Moreno J., Neuner F., Perdana S., Peters G.P., Plötz P., Rogelj J., Sognnæs I., Van de Ven D.-J., Vielle M., Zachmann G., Zagamé P., Chiodi A.

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison.

Science of The Total Environment , Volume 793 - 2021

Giarola S., Mittal S., Vielle M., Perdana S., Campagnolo L., Delpiazzo E., Bui H., Anger Kraavi A., Kolpakov A., Sognnaes I., Peters G., Hawkes A., Koberle A., Grant N., Gambhir A., Nikas A., Doukas H., Moreno J., van de Ven D.-J.

Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity

Science of The Total Environment , Volume 783 - 2021

Drouet L., Bosetti V., Padoan S., Aleluia Reis L., Bertram C., Dalla Longa F., Després J., Emmerling J., Fosse F., Fragkiadakis K., Frank S., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Harmsen M., Krey V., Oshiro K., Nogueira L.P., Paroussos L., Piontek F., Riahi K., Rochedo P.R.R., Schaeffer R., Takakura J., van der Wijst K., van der Zwaan B., van Vuuren D., Vrontisi Z., Weitzel M., Zakeri B., Tavoni M.

Net zero emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Nature Climate Change , Volume 11, pages1070–1076 - 2021

Gutiérrez-Meave R., Rosellón J., Sarmiento L.

The effect of changing marginal-cost to physical-order dispatch in the power sector

RFF Working Papers Series , Working Paper (21-19) - 2021

Bertram C. et al. (Bosetti V., Drouet L., Emmerling J.)

Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

Environmental Research Letters , Volume 16, Number 7 - 2021

Piontek F., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Kompas T., Méjean A., Otto C., Rising J., Soergel B., Taconet N., Tavoni M.

Integrated perspective on translating biophysical to economic impacts of climate change

Nature Climate Change , Volume 11, pages 563–572 - 2021

Pai S., Emmerling J., Drouet L., Zerriffi H., Jewell J.

Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally

One Earth , 4 (7), 1026--1036, July 2021 - 2021

Giarola S., Molar-Cruz A., Vaillancourt K., Bahn O., Sarmiento L., Hawkes A., Brown M.

The role of energy storage on the uptake of renewable energy: A model comparison approach

Energy Policy , - 2021

Giarola S., Mittal S., Vielle M., Perdana S., Campagnolo L., Delpiazzo E., Bui H., Kraavi A.A., Kolpakov A., Sognnaes I., et Al.

Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: A comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity

Science of The Total Environment , Volume 783, 20 August 2021, 146861 - 2021

Harmsen M., Kriegler E., van Vuuren D., van der Wijst K.-I., Luderer G., Cui R., Dessens O., Drouet L., Emmerling J., et al.

Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Environmental Research Letters , April 2021 - 2021

Shayegh S., Bosetti V., Tavoni M.

Future Prospects of Direct Air Capture Technologies: Insights From an Expert Elicitation Survey

Frontiers in Climate , - 2021

Sarmiento L., Wägner N., Zaklan A.

Effectiveness, Spillovers, and Well-Being Effects of Driving Restriction Policies

RFF Working Papers Series , 21-13, May 2021 - 2021

Brutschin E., Pianta S., Tavoni M., Riahi K., Bosetti V., Marangoni G., van Ruijven B.

A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios

Environmental Research Letters , Volume 16, Number 6 - 2021

Marangoni G., Lamontagne J.R., Quinn J.D., Reed P.M., Keller K.

Adaptive mitigation strategies hedge against extreme climate futures

Climatic Change , 166, Article number: 37 (2021) - 2021

Smith S.J., Klimont Z., Drouet L., Harmsen M., Luderer G., Riahi K., van Vuuren D.P.

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 study on short-lived climate forcers: introduction and overview

Climatic Change , 163, pages1399-1408 - 2021

Rafaj P., Kiesewetter G., Krey V., Schöpp W., Bertram C., Drouet L., Fricko O., Shinichiro F., Harmsen M., Hilaire J., Huppmann D., Klimont Z., Kolp P., Aleluia Reis L., van Vuuren D.P.

Air quality and health implications of 1.5–2°C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: A multi-model scenario analysis

Environmental Research Letters , - 2021

Emmerling J., Tavoni M.

Representing inequalities in integrated assessment modeling of climate change

One Earth , Volume 4, Issue 2, 19 February 2021, Pages 177-180 - 2021

Ilkka K., Butnar I., Bauer N., Caspani M, Edelenbosch O., Emmerling J., Fragkos P., et al.

Exploring the Possibility Space: Taking Stock of the Diverse Capabilities and Gaps in Integrated Assessment Models

Environmental Research Letters , - 2021

Bosetti V.

Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance , - 2021

Athanasoglou S., Bosetti V., Drouet L.

A Satisficing Framework for Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty

Environmental Modeling & Assessment (2021) , - 2021

Roelfsema M., Van Soest H., Harmsen M., van Vuuren D., Bertram C., Elzen M., Höhne N., Iacobuta G., Krey V., Kriegler E., Luderer G., Riahi K., Ueckerdt F., Després J., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Frank S., Fricko O., Gidden M., Humpenöder F., Huppmann D., Fujimori S., Fragkiadakis K., Gi K., Keramidas K., Köberle A., Aleluia Reis L., Rochedo P., Schaeffer R., Oshiro K., Vrontisi Z., Chen W., Iyer G., Edmonds J., Kannavou M., Jiang K., Mathur R., Safonov G., Vishwanathan S.S.

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Nature Communications , Volume 11, Article number: 2096 (2020) - 2020

Fofrich R. A., Tong D., Calvin K.V., Sytze de Boer H., Emmerling J., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Luderer G., Rogelj J., Davis S.J.

Early Retirement of Power Plants in Climate Mitigation Scenarios

Environmental Research Letters , - 2020

Abatayo A.L., Bosetti V., Casari M., Ghidoni R., Tavoni M.

Solar geoengineering may lead to excessive cooling and high strategic uncertainty

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) , June 1, 2020 - 2020

Realmonte G., Drouet L., Gambhir A., Glynn J., Hawkes A., Köberle A.C., Tavoni M.

Reply to “High energy and materials requirement for direct air capture calls for further analysis and R&D”

Nature Communications , Volume 11, Article number: 3286 (2020) - 2020

Smith S.J., Chateau J., Dorheim K., Drouet L., Durand-Lasserve O., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Hanaoka T., Harmsen M., Hilaire J., Keramidas K., Klimont Z., Luderer G., Moura M.C.P., Riahi K., Rogelj J., Sano F., van Vuuren D.P., Wada K.

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Climatic Change , (2020) - 2020

Goglio P., Williams A.G., Balta-Ozkan N., Harris N.R.P., Williamson P., Huisingh D., Zhang Z., Tavoni M.

Advances and challenges of life cycle assessment (LCA) of greenhouse gas removal technologies to fight climate changes

Journal of Cleaner Production , Volume 244, 20 January 2020, 118896 - 2020

Emmerling J., Drouet L., van der Wijst K-I., Van Vuuren D., Bosetti V., Tavoni M.

The role of the discount rate for emission pathways and negative emissions

Environmental Research Letters , - 2019

Roe S., Streck C., Obersteiner M., Frank S., Griscom B., Drouet L., Fricko O., Gusti M., Harris N., Hasegawa T., Hausfather Z., Havlík P., House J., Nabuurs G-J., Popp A., Sánchez M.J.S., Sanderman J., Smith P., Stehfest E., Lawrence D.

Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5°C World

Nature Climate Change , Volume 9, pages 817–828 - 2019

Markandya A., De Cian E., Drouet L., Polanco-Martínez J.M., Bosello F.

Building Risk into the Mitigation/Adaptation Decisions simulated by Integrated Assessment Models

Environmental and Resource Economics , 74(4), 1687-1721, December 2019 - 2019

Emmerling J., Kornek U., Bosetti V., Lessmann K.

Climate thresholds and heterogeneous regions: implications for coalition formation

The Review of International Organizations , pp 1–24 - 2019

Jewell, J., Emmerling, J., Vinichenko, V., Bertram C., Berger L., Daly H. E., Keppo I., Krey V., Gernaat D. E. H. J., Fragkiadakis K., McCollum D., Paroussas L., Riahi K., Tavoni M., van Vuuren D.

Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter

Nature , Volume 578, pages E5–E7(2020) - 2020

Berger L., Bréchete Th., Pestiaux J., van Steenberghe V.

Case-study - The transition of Belgium towards a low carbon society: A macroeconomic analysis fed by a participative approach

Energy Strategy Reviews , Volume 29, May 2020, 100463 - 2020

Malik A., Bertram C., Després J., Emmerling J., Fujimori S., Garg A., Kriegler E., et al.

Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector

Environmental Research Letters , April 2020 - 2020

van Sluisveld M.A.E., Harmsen M.J.H.M., van Vuuren D.P., Bosetti V., Wilson C., van der Zwaan B.

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2°C scenarios to expert projections

Global Environmental Change , Volume 50, 201–211 - 2018

Gillingham K., Nordhaus W., Anthoff D., Bosetti V., Blanford G., Christensen P., McJeon H., Reilly J., Sztorc P.

Modeling Uncertainty in the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists , Volume 5, Number 4, pp 791-826 - 2018

Rogelj J., Popp A., Calvin K., Luderer G., Emmerling J., Gernaat D., Fujimori S., Strefler J., Hasegawa T., Marangoni G., Krey V., Kriegler E., Riahi K., van Vuuren D., Doelman J., Drouet L., Edmonds J., Fricko O., Harmsen M., Havlík P., Humpenöder F., Stehfest E., Tavoni M.

Scenarios towards limiting global-mean temperature increase below 1.5°C

Nature Climate Change , Volume 8, 8, pages 325–332(2018) - 2018

McCollum, D., Wilson C., Bevione M., Carrara S., Edelenbosch O.Y., Emmerling J., Guivarch C., Karkatsoulis P., Keppo I., Krey V., Lin Z., Ó Broin E., Paroussos L., Pettifor H., Ramea K., Riahi K., Sano F., Rodriguez B.S., van Vuuren D.

Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Nature Energy , Volume 3, pages 664–673 - 2018

Campagnolo L., Eboli F., Farnia L., Carraro C.

Supporting the UN SDGs transition: methodology for sustainability assessment and current worldwide ranking.

Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal , 12 (2018-10): 1–31 - 2018

van den Berg N.J., Hof A.F., den Elzen M.G.J., van Vuuren D. P., Chen W., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Fujimori S., Höhne N., Köberle A., McCollum D., Schaeffer R., Shekhar S., Vishwanathan S. S.; Vrontisi Z., Blok K.

Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways

Climatic Change , February 2019, pp. 1-18 - 2019

Krey V., Guo F., Kolp P., Zhou W., Schaeffer R., Awasthy A., Bertram C., De Boer H.S., Fragkos P., Fujimori S., He C., Iyer G., Keramidas K., Koberle A., Oshiro K., Aleluia Reis L., Shoai-Tehrani B., Vishwanathan S., Capros P., Drouet L., Edmonds J.E., Garg A., Gernaat D., Jiang K., Kannavou M., Kitous A., Kriegler E., Luderer G., Mathur R., Muratori M., Sano F., van Vuuren D.

Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models

Energy , Volume 172, pages 1254-1267 - 2019

Fujimori, S., Hasegawa T., Krey V., Riahi K., Bertram C., Bodirsky B.L., Bosetti V., Callen J., Després J., Doelman J., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Frank S., Fricko O., Havlik P., Humpenöder F., Koopman J., van Meijl H., Ochi Y., Popp A., Schmitz A., Takahashi K., and D. van Vuuren

A Multi-Model Assessment of Food Security Implications of Climate Change Mitigation

Nature Sustainability , Volume 2, No. 5 (May 13, 2019): 386–96 - 2019

Harmsen M., van Vuuren D.P., Bodirsky B.L., Chateau J., Durand-Lasserve O., Drouet L., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Gernaat D.E.H.J., Hanaoka T., Hilaire J., Keramidas K., Luderer G., Moura M.C.P., Sano F., Smith S. J., Wada K.

The role of methane in future climate strategies: Mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Climatic Change , May 2019, pp. 1-17 - 2019

Babonneau F., Corcos G., Drouet L., Vial, J.P.

NeatWork: A Tool for the Design of Gravity-Driven Water Distribution Systems for Poor Rural Communities

INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics , Vol. 49, No. 2: 129–136 - 2019

Harmsen M., Fricko O., Hilaire J., van Vuuren D.P., Drouet L., Durand-Lasserve O., Fujimori S., Keramidas K., Klimont Z., Luderer G., Aleluia Reis L., Riahi K., Sano F., Smith S. J.

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Climatic Change , June 2019, pp 1–19 - 2019

Realmonte G., Drouet L., Gambhir A., Glynn J., Hawkes A., Köberle A.C., Tavoni M.

An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways

Nature Communications , Volume 10, Article number: 3277 - 2019

Marangoni G., Tavoni M., Bosetti V., Borgonovo E., Capros P., Fricko O., Gernaat D. E. H. J., Guivarch C., Havlik P., Huppmann D., Johnson N., Karkatsoulis P., Keppo I., Krey V., Ó Broin E., Price J., van Vuuren D. P.

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Nature Climate Change , Volume 7, pages113–117(2017) - 2017

Jewell J., McCollum D., Emmerling J., Bertram C., Gernaat D. E. H. J., Krey V., Paroussos L., Berger L., Fragkiadakis K., Keppo I., Saadi N., Tavoni M., van Vuuren D., Vinichenko V., Riahi K.

Limited Emission Reductions from Fuel Subsidy Removal except in Energy-Exporting Regions

Nature , 554, 229–233 (2018) - 2018

Gunnar L., Vrontisi Z., Bertram C., Edelenbosch O. Y., Pietzcker R. C., Rogelj J., De Boer H. S., Drouet L., Emmerling J., Fricko O., Fujimori S., Havlík P., Iyer G., Keramidas K., Kitous A., Pehl M., Krey V., Riahi K., Saveyn B., Tavoni M., Van Vuuren D.P., Kriegler E.

Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5-2°C pathways

Nature Climate Change , Volume 8, pages 626–633 - 2018


World Induced Technical Change Hybrid

An integrated assessment model designed to assess climate change mitigation and adaptation